Dubai Default Coming? Black Swan?

No Black Swan here-old news and relatively insignificant with respect to size. Look at the $17 trillion CRE, LBO/takeover and bank balance sheet debt that matures during the next few years and Dubai looks pretty small. Anyway, there have been Sovereign defaults in the past, and the markets all got upset so we can probably look for the same here, but I suspect a mild case. I'll bet that Abu Dhabi provides a solution, with a little pain. Especially since I see that investment in Dubai is continuing and the property market is moving towards stability.