12/16/2009

Talf will end and then?

The Fed said its TALF expiration remains set at June 30, 2010 for loans backed by new-issue CMBS and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.

This means that we can expect some deflation of the bubble in certain securities, but certainly in CMBS. I'm not suggesting trying to set up a short and time it just right. Rather, I am suggesting that with a fall in cheap,tax-payer financed, low risk (yours not mine) buying power, we will see spreads widen, providing some good buying opportunities. Well researched CMBS buys will provide better yields than almost any other fixed income play. The window for this will be relatively small-9 months max, as the world is chasing yield and won't miss this moment.

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